Special Features

Tropical Atlantic (AL91): An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N southward to 07N, with a a broad 1011 mb low near 13N35W along the axis, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 16N between 30W and 39W. Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week, and interests there should continue to monitor its progress. There is a medium chance of formation within the next 2 days, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

Refer to the Special Features section above on an eastern Atlantic tropical wave (AL91) that is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave over the NE Caribbean, N of 14N.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, then extends west-southwestward through a 1011 mb low pressure near 13N35W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N45W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between 16W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 08N to 12N between 48W and 54W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous strong convection across the Caribbean waters S of 11N, near Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends from the Florida Everglades to the central Gulf around 25N89W. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted along this trough at 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this trough within 150 nm of the southwest Florida coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail over the Gulf. For the forecast, the trough will persist over the eastern Gulf into Sun night, generating showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will lead to moderate or weaker winds and generally slight seas into early next week. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, then stall early next week over northern waters.

Caribbean Sea

See the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections above for information on convection being caused by those features. Convergent trades are coupling with an upper- level trough in the vicinity to trigger scattered moderate to strong convection across waters near Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti. A tradewind dominant regime prevails over the basin, with generally moderate easterly winds, fresh over the central basin, and gentle in the NW. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the east and SW, and 1 to 3 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean into early Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about the potential for tropical cyclone development in the tropical Atlantic.

A stationary front runs southwestward from off the Carolinas coast to 31N75W to the northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this feature for waters W of 73W including much of the Bahamas and around Cuba. Farther east, a mid- and upper-level low centered near 45N61W is causing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N between 57W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle NE winds are west of the stationary front. A large dome of 1024 mb high at the central Atlantic is supporting moderate with locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 10N between 25W and 65W. Farther W, more southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. In the far eastern Atlantic, E of 25W, fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will meander over the far NW basin into the start of next week, bringing showers and thunderstorms to that region, along with locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik