Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery. Scattered showers are along the wave axis from 03N to 05N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46. 5W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N and W of 44W.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W to 02N43W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 240 nm on either side of the boundaries and W of 19W.

Gulf Of America

A weak stationary front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1010 mb that is located over northern Bahamas near 28N78W and continues to northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high pressure system centered near 28N93W. The related weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the SE Gulf will slowly move southeastward and stall over the Straits of Florida today and lose definition through Fri. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions today. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas.

Caribbean Sea

The interaction between strong high pressure centered well north of the basin over the central Atlantic, with relatively lower pressures in northern South America is supporting a pressure gradient that is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are outside the Gulf of Venezuela per recent altimeter satellite data pass. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh trades across north-central, eastern and southwestern portions of the sea while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal system extends across the western Atlantic, with 1010 mb low pres centered near 28N78W. A cold front is analyzed from 31N72W to the low to 27N80W. Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid to upper-level trough across the same area as the front. Very dry sinking air with northwest flow aloft is moving across most of the western half of the basin as the trough advances eastward. To the east of trough, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is evident north of 24N between 62W and 78W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of about 27N between 63W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the described area, and by an altimeter satellite pass. A portion of a stationary front is along 31N between 48W and 56W.

The remainder of the SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a rather broad high pressure ridge axis. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are south of 28N and between 55W and 75W, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in long- period east swell south of 16N between 55W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb high pressure center centered well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas roughly from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Over the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted.

Posted about 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA